Scott Kingsley, Senior Wealth Advisor
“I’ll invest when the market feels more stable.”
That line, or some version of it, has been echoing in conversations all year. And I get it. When you've just watched markets tumble, it’s tempting to wait for a ‘green light’ before stepping back in.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth: the market doesn’t flash a signal when it’s about to turn. By the time things feel safe, the real gains have often already happened.
For many investors, especially those still scarred by 2022’s inflation shock or 2020’s whiplash rebound, this cautious mindset feels rational. But over the long term, hesitation comes at a cost. Often, it’s not poor decisions that derail wealth plans, it’s the indecision between them.
Let’s start with a familiar idea that holds up better than most market mantras: time in the market beats timing the market. It’s often repeated because, well, the maths backs it up.
Trying to sidestep every dip and only invest when conditions are “perfect” requires two perfect decisions: when to exit and when to re-enter. Most professionals don’t get that right consistently, so what chance does the average investor have?
Now consider this: according to Fidelity’s data on the S&P 500 from 1980 to 2022, if you’d missed just the 10 best days in the market over that 40+ year period, your overall return would have been cut in half. Miss the 30 best days? Your returns fall by nearly 90%.
Here’s the catch: many of those best days came within weeks, sometimes days, of the worst ones. In 2023, 8 of the 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst.
Markets move fast, and they often move up before they make sense. Waiting for clarity usually means you’re too late. And once you miss those recovery windows, you can't just “catch up” by investing later, you’ve lost the compounding, and with it, real long-term value.
This isn’t just about numbers. It’s about human psychology and how it quietly shapes our financial decisions.
When markets are down, fear whispers that things could get worse. When they’re up, regret creeps in: “Did I miss the bottom?” When they’re flat, doubt kicks in: “Is it really a good time to invest?”
These are perfectly human reactions, but they’re also part of what behavioural finance calls loss aversion: our tendency to feel the pain of a loss far more strongly than the joy of a gain.
Another key bias? Recency effect.
We overemphasise what’s just happened, last month’s volatility, last year’s inflation, last week’s Fed decision and underweight the broader trajectory. This can lead to paralysis. We wait, hoping for certainty in a system that runs on uncertainty.
I see this especially in expats managing wealth across borders. Currency risk, geopolitical headlines and regulatory complexity can make even experienced investors hesitant. Add in a few bad months on the market, and it’s easy to freeze up. Not from ignorance, but from the weight of too many variables.
Here’s the hard truth: waiting doesn’t protect you from volatility, it often just delays your entry until prices are higher and yields are lower.
Let’s put this into sharper perspective with a hypothetical example, one that mirrors countless real-life client experiences.
Imagine you had £500,000 sitting in cash at the start of 2020, intending to invest it in a global equity portfolio. Then the pandemic hit. Understandably spooked, you decide to “wait it out.”
By the end of March 2020, markets had dropped over 30%. Things looked dire.
But in the 12 months following that low point, the S&P 500 gained more than 75%. Even if you’d waited just three months to reinvest, you’d have missed nearly half the rebound. Miss six months? You’d have locked in far less growth, and perhaps stayed out longer still.
I’ve worked with clients who waited a year or more to “feel confident” again, and by then, valuations were back near all-time highs. The result? Either they finally re-enter at the top, or stay out entirely, waiting for the next correction (which often takes its time arriving).
Either way, their money is working less for them, not because of poor market performance, but because of inaction driven by fear.
So what’s the alternative? Jump all in, blindfolded? Of course not. No sensible strategy involves disregarding risk, but there’s a world of difference between risk awareness and risk avoidance.
Here are three practical ways investors can stay engaged without having to “get it perfect”:
Instead of trying to pick the perfect moment, you can drip-feed capital into the market over time, monthly, quarterly, or on custom schedules. This smooths out entry points and takes emotion out of the process. You won’t capture the exact bottom, but you won’t miss it either.
For example, spreading a £300,000 lump sum over 6–12 months allows for participation while cushioning against short-term volatility. It also creates a psychological buffer, you’re not “all in,” but you’re not idle, either.
For more risk-averse investors, structured notes can offer market exposure with defined outcomes, sometimes even capital protection or income features tied to specific indices or scenarios.
However, these are not risk-free. Protection typically applies only if the note is held to maturity, and even then, it's subject to the credit risk of the issuing institution. Liquidity can be limited, especially in secondary markets, and the payoff structures are often complex - meaning the outcomes may differ significantly from plain equity exposure.
These products can be helpful tools when used appropriately, but they’re not suitable for everyone. If you're considering structured notes, it’s crucial to understand the trade-offs and ensure the product matches your risk profile, time horizon, and liquidity needs. Always assess the financial strength of the issuer and consult an adviser before proceeding.
Rather than an all-or-nothing approach, some clients find success by deploying a portion of their cash reserve now, with planned tranches for future dips or quarterly intervals. This reduces regret risk, if markets rise, they’re at least partly in. If markets fall, they still have dry powder ready.
A personalised plan, with checkpoints and defined decision rules, removes the emotional burden of constant re-evaluation.
Here’s the irony: people often delay investing out of fear of losing money, but in doing so, they lose something far more costly: time.
Time is the magic ingredient. It’s the silent multiplier behind every long-term wealth story. And it’s the one thing you can’t get back once it’s gone.
In my conversations with clients, I often ask: What exactly are you waiting for? A clearer signal? A lower entry point? A more comfortable headline?
Markets don’t offer comfort as a condition for reward. They offer volatility as the price of admission, and that price is paid with short-term discomfort, not long-term destruction.
Yes, there will be downturns. Yes, you’ll wish you’d waited a little longer, or entered a little sooner, but over decades, those details blur into insignificance.
What matters is whether your money was working at all, or sitting on the sidelines, earning nothing while inflation quietly eroded its value.
One often-overlooked factor for expats is currency mismatch. If your assets are denominated in GBP or EUR but your long-term expenses (like school fees or retirement costs) will be in Thai baht or another local currency, you’re exposed to FX risk whether you realise it or not. Even modest currency swings can have a meaningful impact over time.
That’s why it's critical to align your portfolio with your future liabilities, not just geographically, but in currency terms too. Depending on the situation, this could involve holding assets in the local currency, using multi-currency accounts, or exploring hedging solutions for larger positions. If you’re not factoring currency into your wealth plan, you’re only seeing half the picture.
In investing, perfection is a mirage. Progress, on the other hand, is available today.
There’s no medal for guessing the bottom. But there is long-term reward for staying invested, thoughtfully, consistently, and with a strategy that matches your goals.
If you’re sitting on the fence, ask yourself: is it really risk you’re avoiding, or is it regret? Because with the right tools, and a clear head, you don’t have to choose between safety and growth. You just have to start.
And if you’re not sure how to take that first step, that’s what a good adviser is for.